Alejandro Miranda Guzmán, Director of Program Monitoring at SITIMM, analyzes the economic and labor outlook for 2022: accumulated inflation above 5%, GDP growth between 4.2% and 4.5% thanks to T-MEC, employment recovery via IMSS, and an estimated 16–18% increase to the minimum wage.
_By: Alejandro Miranda Guzmán, Director of Program Monitoring at SITIMM._
The first half of this year has been marked by several news items of interest to workers: first, the second wave of infections that threatened job stability and economic and social well-being, alongside the arrival of vaccines, a task that will remain on the public agenda throughout the second half of 2021.
In addition, the sharp rise in accumulated inflation, which by the end of July is projected to exceed **5%**, leads us to anticipate annual inflation between **5.6% and 5.9%** — a figure we must address with great caution in the upcoming collective bargaining processes.
On the economic front, the data from the World Bank is positive but insufficient, as the forecast for GDP growth is estimated between **4.2% and 4.5%**, thanks to the implementation and industrial operation of T-MEC and, notably, to the automotive and auto-parts industry in which SITIMM plays a key role in central Mexico. The rise in exports, the rapid recovery of jobs, labor peace and authentic collective bargaining have been drivers of the industrial and labor rebound in the Bajío region.
Given the above, we must engage in the discussion and analysis of how important it is to sustain growth and development in the economy of companies and of our worker base and their families. Economic development must be accompanied by better wages and benefits embedded in our Collective Bargaining Agreements: boosting economic benefits such as the savings fund, grocery vouchers, and quality, productivity and competitiveness bonuses; preserving unity in union work; and, most importantly, reinforcing the union ideals of job stability, economic development and family and social well-being.
Today more than ever we must guarantee and oversee that the economic recovery is equitable: ensuring the inclusion of more women in workplaces, building mechanisms to promptly assist colleagues who unfortunately become infected, providing support at IMSS and in the various workplaces, and running an ongoing campaign to enforce contagion-prevention protocols. We must also facilitate vaccination for our worker base; in this way we can significantly reduce the social, economic and labor impacts left by this pandemic.
Regarding the projected increase to the Minimum Wage, our estimates for **2022** indicate a rise of **16% to 18%**, placing it between **$165 and $168 pesos per day** — a benchmark for the wage-negotiation processes of this second half.
By Eduardo González Vl